Letter to the editor: on wine’s cyclical versus structural challenges

20 NOVEMBER 2025By Alfonso Cevola. THE DRINK BUSINESS

In response to Matthew Deller MW’s recent article on wine’s market trajectory, Alfonso Cevola argues that the industry’s difficulties run deeper than a temporary downturn. He contends that wine’s recruitment pipeline has fractured – and that cultural shifts, not just economics, are to blame.

In response to Matthew Deller MW’s recent article on wine’s market trajectory, Alfonso Cevola argues that the industry’s difficulties run deeper than a temporary downturn. He contends that wine’s recruitment pipeline has fractured – and that cultural shifts, not just economics, are to blame.

Dear editor,

I appreciate Matthew Deller MW’s thoughtful response to my piece on wine’s demographic challenges (“Wine is facing a cyclical adjustment, not crisis,” November 13). His historical context and industry experience provide valuable perspective, and I’m glad the piece sparked substantive debate.

Interestingly, Deller’s response acknowledges what I see as the core challenge, though we interpret it differently. He writes: “The social and cultural structures that once facilitated progression from casual interest to sustained engagement – family dining, workplace hospitality, restaurant culture – have weakened.”

This is precisely the structural problem I described. If the infrastructure that created wine drinkers has weakened, how does wine recruit the next generation? Wine literacy has historically developed through a clear pathway: commodity bottles in youth, gradual trading up as palates mature and incomes rise. That system appears to be breaking down.

Deller’s answer appears to be: emerging markets + historical precedent + confidence that wine adapts. His analysis of past recoveries from temperance movements, Prohibition, and the 2008 crisis is persuasive. But those challenges were policy-driven or economic shocks. What we’re seeing now is a cultural preference shift, which is fundamentally different and may be more permanent.

The question of emerging markets is complex. While they offer growth potential, younger consumers globally are increasingly health-conscious and moderation-focused. Whether emerging markets will follow the same consumption patterns as previous generations remains to be seen.

I genuinely want to be wrong about this. Wine’s resilience over centuries is remarkable, and Deller’s industry experience carries considerable weight. But I’m struggling to see the mechanism for Gen Z recruitment that would support his cyclical interpretation. The industry needs to identify that pathway, not simply trust that wine will adapt as it has before.

Deller frames this as cyclical adjustment within a maturing category. I see a recruitment pipeline that’s broken. The data supports both interpretations. The question is: which one should guide industry strategy?

I’m grateful for the conversation and open to being convinced otherwise. If Deller or others can show me the pathway I’m missing, I’d welcome that correction. But I need to see the mechanism, not just confidence in wine’s endurance.

Best regards,
Alfonso Cevola